When Will The Market Rebound ?

"Brian, when do you see the real estate market rebounding?" -- Anonymous

Everything in life and nature has its cycles; real estate is no exception. Generally speaking (in DC at least) there is a longer Seller's market period followed by a relatively brief Buyer's period where things stabilize a bit; like a boat that rights itself having a keel preventing it from going too far over board. Then it slowly goes back to a longer Seller's market period again. But the situation we are in now is unlike I have ever seen or studied. Supply and demand also plays a big part in it too, as well as a whole host of other factors that could affect the economy; i.e. wars, natural disasters, population, politics, Wall Street > Main Street mortgage funding pool, etc., etc.

Given my nautical example above- it would be one thing for a real estate buyers/sellers market to "list" or lean to starboard ( right - green) / or port (left - red) -- but to plunge straight down to the depths of the abyss is basically what happened to the US housing market starting in 2005-2006. "TARP" (Troubled Asset Relief Program) or "bale outs" have not raised us from the depths or provided to be an effective "bilge pump" .... so salvage efforts are still ongoing...

The "flippers" remind me of a large school or shoal of sardines or herring that suddenly disappears; i.e. Cannery Row. There are some absolutely great deals out there now to be had in foreclosures and "REO" (bank owned) sales; but I do not see investors snatching them all up like hot cakes. What are they going to do ? Put all their funds or eggs of their proverbial baskets in under performing or no performing assets ? When things start picking back up again, the investors will be back like the sardines or herring for the feeding frenzy when they can make a quick buck on a flip. Then the whole things starts again; greater demand, less supply. It has been said that the "flippers" were in large part fueling the "affluenza" craze of get rich in real estate schemes... Will be very interesting to see what happens in this next real estate decade 2010 - 2020.

If I knew or had all the answers or was the "Nostradamus" of real estate, I wouldn't be here writing this damn blog and would be on late night TV infomercials selling the next great "plan" ! LOL : )